Inventory Graphs through 8/31/07

Here are four graphs representing SFR inventory in all of MB, west of Sepulveda, covering April 2007 through Aug. 31, 2007. (Note: the starting point for "April" is March 27, the date of MBC's first Market Update.)

There are four separate graphs, one for the whole west-of-Hwy.-1 area, and one for each of the three regions (Hill, Sand and Trees). Please note, we use different scales for the y-axis, depending on the subject region. Also note, if we included condos and townhomes, inventory would be substantially larger in the Sand Section.

Please refer to the "technical notes" in our most recent posting of inventory (6/30/07) as those apply to these charts as well.

(Click any graph to enlarge.)

Inventory for the entire subject region was up just 9 listings at the end of August, compared with the start of our tracking in late March. We're now a tick below the peak of 83 actives from June 30.



Comparing August to the rest of the 5-month period, we note a modest spike (+7) in actives resulting from slower sales activity in the second half of the month. Mitigating this net rise in inventory were a total of 7 cancellations in the month of August (not shown).

The +9 difference between new listings and newly pending sales in the second half of August was not the most we've seen – in the second half
of June, the same +9 differential existed, and the number was +10 for the second part of May. In the busy months that followed, the excess inventory was largely worked off.

Interestingly, in only 2 of the 2-week periods studied did sales (newly pending listings) exceed the number of new listings. Overall, however, the data show a market largely in balance – inventory levels remain steady, with no obvious excesses in supply or demand at this time.

True Days on Market for Active Listings, 7/31/07

At the close of July, average DOM was steady at 90 for all SFRs in MB west of Sepulveda, up just a tick (+2) from our last report at the end of June. (Click the chart to enlarge.)

Other figures we have seen remain significantly lower. No one else breaks out DOM by section or limits the count to SFRs. And of course, most DOM calculations rely on up-to-the-minute MLS data, which are routinely manipulated by bogus re-listings. Not these calculations.

Section by section:

The Hill Section figure looks dreadful at 104 DOM. What's worse, it's up 29 DOM since the last report, 31 days previous. Partly it's the small sample size (13 active listings) and partly it's a lack of activity that explains the high DOM. As we've noted before, the whole of the Hill would look much better (71 DOM) if not for 844 11th, a forgotten but persistent listing at 460 DOM by the end of July.

Average DOM in the Sand Section is up 13 from 78 last month. This figure has bounced around – it was at 103 at the end of May.

The Tree Section average is significantly down from the last report (-12 DOM), with about the same reductions in both market segments. Among homes listed for less than $2m, average DOM is 64 (down from 77), while among those asking more than $2m, DOM is at 96 (down from 108).

In the pricier segment, three homes at 200+ DOM are gone (2 sold, 1 canceled) since the last DOM report, while in the other segment, a rush of sales has helped. Without the 3 listings more than 4 months old, average DOM in the Trees <$2m would be at a ridiculous 17. That's hot.


About the calculations:

Total days on market for all active listings were added together, then divided by the number of listings – a simple calculation.

Four anomalous listings were removed from the data – all of them homes listed while under construction (511 Pacific, 217 9th, 4419 Highland and 644 33rd).

Discussion of Market Update for 7/31/07

MBC's newest set of twice-monthly Market Update spreadsheets may be downloaded by clicking here (or on the left sidebar). These provide the detailed backup for the discussion below.


Hill Section

There are 13 active SFRs.

Since the last update, with really zero action, we had one new listing and two go into escrow.

New: 869 3rd, a newer, sharp, modern-style home at 4000+ sq. ft. w/ views and a yard, asking $3.995m.

The twist: This new one, owned by two realtors, was purchased 2 yrs. ago for much less ($2.438m). That's a big chunk of appreciation (64%) since May '04. As MBC noted in this story, the price also reflects a very different view of appreciation since 2004 than we get from a comparable Hill Section home (637 6th) that is newer, bigger, "more voluptuous," and priced lower.

Cutting: A remodel at 916 9th dropped $100k after about 50 DOM, now at $3.175m.

Au Revoir: Two new-construction homes around $4m are in escrow, including 300 N Dianthus (the fishbowl) after 3 mos. and -$200k, and 877 8th, with us for just 6 weeks.

Closed: One final price came through – for the townhome at 710 MBB. Final price was $1.206m, down $173k (-13%) from start. Not incidentally, the final price ruins the prospects for 714 MBB.


Sand Section

There are 21 active SFRs.

Though the Sand Section is certainly busy, during this period we saw 4 new listings added to the update, and just 2 going into escrow.

Welcome: 316 Highland, a really sweet, newer Cape Cod (2500 sq. ft.) at $1.995m; 225 Moonstone, a straightforward El Porto remodel at $1.295m for 1350 sq. ft.; 440 6th, a small corner-lot (@ Ingleside) walkstreet home that seems best for a builder at $1.899m (in escrow already); and 308 20th Pl., a 70 y.o. home, likely a teardown but rehabbed a bit, asking too much for the lot at $1.8m.

Back in the Mix: 505 3rd St. dropped out of escrow. This is 4/3, 2600 sq. ft. on a typical local lot of 2700 sq. ft. – was at $1.949m. Price was and is odd, given that nice homes quite nearby took less or only a tick more than this awkward home is asking now. To wit: 532 1st St., a comfy 4/3, 2650 sq. ft. on a large 4000 sq. ft. lot, sold for $1.9m in late April (never on MLS), while 525 2nd St., far nicer than 3rd, with 4/4, 2750 on 2700, closed for $2.125m in early July.

Gone: The aforementioned 440 6th (walkstreets move fast!) and 209 41st, last at $1.739m, down just $60k in 60 days on market.


Tree Section

There are 37 active SFRs, down 5 from last report with lots of action to cover. Of the 37, 12 are in the sub-$2m range, and 25 are above $2m.

Big news was the end of the sales drought above $2m. For 25 days beginning June 29, no Tree Section home over $2m sold. But things eased a bit. In fact, we're now short 7 listings in this segment compared to last time – 4 sales pending and 3 cancellations.

Let's start just with the homes above $2m.

Ready for new owners: Of the 4 pending listings, 3 were new construction, and 2 of those were $3m+. Priciest was 2104 Palm, near 200 DOM and down $375k from its $3.675m start. Second-priciest, 927 27th, sold after about 90 DOM and one bogus re-listing that, in retrospect, probably wasn't necessary.

Also selling were 3113 Valley (new construction) and long-suffering 579 29th, on the market 8 months and last listed $200k below the start price of $2.575. This one had tried reductions and a price increase before settling for a lower list price and finally finding a buyer.

Sticking with the old owners: Dropping out of this crowded segment were 3 homes:

• A two-year itch remodel at 746 31st (was at $2.399m);
• A late-80s home that had recently dropped $800k in price (2909 Elm) – it might be rented, since that sign went up the same time as the big price drop; and
• One of the three Arbolado Ct. homes that had been for sale at the same time, 752 14th, always listed at $2.150m – there was a big name on that sign, strange to see no sale.

Time to move in: Sales closed on two near $2.5m, 3005 Poinsettia for asking price at $2.525m and, get this, a move-in buyer took 524 14th (the $2m fixer) for almost $300k above asking ($2.487m) – and that's just the beginning of making that house work. To the new owner with the fortitude and vision: Bravo and break a leg.

In the Trees below $2m, the under-supply problem was addressed with 6 new listings, while 2 homes sold and 2 were canceled.

New: 2 that might be lot sales (1732 Pine and 1409 Oak) below $1.3m, a flip at 1717 Pacific ($1.479m), and three others.

Seeing how 2559 Valley (nice, about 2 y.o.) came in at one dollar below $2m, you have to wonder if the same home had come on 3 months ago, would it have begun at $2.2-$2.4m?

Canceled: 737 36th apparently ended its second test of the market (last summer and this spring) without a price adjustment ($1.785m the whole time), while neighbor 724 36th was gone before we got used to it – it was new in late June, very desirable, but it's gone dark.

Sold: 1713 Oak (the cheapest lot on the open market at $1.149m) and 1140 Laurel, sold after about 2 months despite some questions MBC had about the location, lack of yard, and high price (last $1.599m), proving again that we've got no crystal ball here.

Closed sale prices came through on 6 homes, 3 of them lot sales. Two listings took nearly 20% reductions (584 30th and 2503 Valley), while the two best of the crop, 2418 Ardmore and 1413 Oak, took lesser cuts (6% and 3%).

LA Times/Dataquick #'s for June '07

Today's LA Times has the Dataquick tables for June 2007 for LA County.

For Manhattan Beach 90266:

SFRs

# sold: 39

median: $1.300m

% price chg. (YoY): -18.0%

Condos

# sold: 4

median: $2.350m

% price chg. (YoY): +124.9%

Price per square foot (90266): $787

Comment: These are the numbers that made big news earlier in the week because a 36% drop in Southland sales, YoY.

For MB specifically, June saw a slight uptick in sales of SFRs compared to May, but sales were still lower than in March or April. Closing in March: 56, in April: 43, and May: 34, versus 39 for June.

Volume of 39 for June was down from 51 in June 2006, a 23.5% drop for 90266 YoY.

Those monthly median prices really bounce around:

SFR Median Prices, MB 90266, for 2007

March: $1.600m
April:$1.716m
May: $1.450m
June: $1.300m

For all the evident weakness here, a burst of sales activity we're seeing west of Sepulveda in July could well provide better numbers when the sales close in August and early September.

Market Update for 7/15/07

MBC's newest set of twice-monthly market update spreadsheets may be downloaded by clicking here (or in left sidebar). They are current as of July 15, 2007; last update was June 30.

With this edition, the Tree Section sub-$2m segment sprouts a second page, just as the Sand Section and Trees $2m+ had before, so there's now one page for actives and one for pending/sold.

A new tiny note about a feature: There's now a little bullet to the left of the address for any property for which new information is available in this update: 1) new listings, 2) newly pending listings, 3) new solds and 4) new cancellations.

Hill Section

There are 14 active SFRs.

We had no new listings, and one cancellation. Utter calm.

The cancellation was 601 Larsson, a 4br/4ba, 3850 sq. ft. house in an OK location that has seen its share of troubles. Sellers bought it in Sept. '05 for $2m, then tried to resell at $2.7m this year. That delusion fell and the price came to $2.4m. But there was this matter of foreclosure. The loans went into extreme default, public auctions were set, then the loans were made good, and marketing continued. About 90 DOM passed, and now the signs are down. Go figure.

If you find the Larsson saga strange, try to imagine why 512 John had its price increased by $400k after 144 DOM.

A final sale price came through at Post-Office-adjacent 1043 10th; at $1.950m, the final location discount was a further $297k (13%) off initial asking.

Sand Section

There are 19 active SFRs. Periodically we point out that, since we don't cover THs and condos, total inventory is somewhat higher.

We had 2 truly new listings, and 2 bogus re-lists in which the address of the home was changed mid-way through the listing. What? Yes, for those of you keeping score, 232 16th is now 234 16th, and 3009 Highland is now 232 30th Place.

Truly new: A teardown at 513 21st that went immediately at $1.250, and a remodel at 469 27th at $1.599m.

We have a net drop of 5 listings because 7 went into escrow.

Of these, two had the address of 505 – one, new ("green") construction on Valley, last at $2.3m; and one a dated, mishmash sorta-remodel on 3rd (not a walkstreet) at $1.95m.

The latter is a head-scratcher because it was well above lot value but the home was, achem, in need. A sweet, newer home, slightly bigger, around the corner at 525 2nd just now sold for $2.125m, a mere tick above this challenge on 3rd. We'll see what they got; they paid $1.6m in Sept. '05.

Also gone: A slightly dated (80s) home at 213 Manhattan Ave. ($2.499m), a sweet walkstreet home at 332 6th ($3.375m), a luxury remodel at 132 18th ($3.995m), and a very long-term listing (almost 500 days since initial list, with some time off) at 224 25th, a dated mess and quasi-duplex that once sought $2.995m, last at $2.875m.

Sold prices: In addition to 525 2nd (above), which took a $75k discount, we saw 228 5th Pl. take $6k above asking (recall that this one sold in March 2007).

A final price also came in on the new construction at 2816 Manhattan Ave.: $2.550m, a total of $349k off the initial price set around Labor Day 2006. The sale happened within a month or so of the first major price reduction.

Tree Section

There are 42 active SFRs, 10 under $2m and 32 above $2m.

With 76% of active Tree Section listings now in that $2m+ range, worry about a glut must be growing. By contrast, in late March, just 52% of actives (19 of 36) in the Trees were in the higher-end segment.

As discussed at MBC, this 2-week period saw 8 active listings sell in the sub-$1.6m price range, while an additional private lot sale (3404 Pine) was posted at $1.2m.

Meanwhile, absolutely nothing sold in the $2m+ range. One home went pending but came right back (1313 Oak). The segment had 7 sales in the 4 weeks prior. There are issues.

Price cuts: One of the biggest steps down we've seen was the total $775k reduction on 2909 Elm, discussed at MBC – it's now the lowest-priced home in the $2m+ segment, which might help. Five others in the segment made cuts, including new construction at 3113 Valley (-$75k), 2709 Oak (-$50k), and 2105 Oak (-$50k), now all priced at $2.3m.

In the sub-$2m range, it was news that 2812 Elm took a cut to $1.699m (-$70k) because it had sat for 300 DOM with no cuts (and no re-listings!). Also, 758 14th took another little slice off ($-61k), but it's still $100k over what the sellers paid exactly one year ago.

Diving in: There were 4 new listings under $2m, but 2 are gone.

Of the actives, 2413 Elm is one house over from Marine, asking $1.799m for 3300 sq. ft. and calling itself "the best deal in the Tree Section" (listing). This one calls to mind 2418 Ardmore, which just sold at $1.599m. Also, 724 36th St. enters the fray just $15k below $2m, a 3000 sq. ft., pleasant stucco home with some nice outdoor space.

There are 5 new listings above $2m, 4 of them brand-new. Two are neighbors, 644 35th and 648 35th, starting at $2.49m and $2.45m, respectively. Meanwhile, 2807 Elm is smaller than those, but starts at $2.9m. At the high end, 3305 Laurel joins us at $3.75m.

Finally, a pleasant Cape Cod (561 35th) with far more space (4350 sq. ft.) than anything under $3m enters at $2.2m – down $100k from the price it began at last year.

Vanishings: It's a mystery what has happened with 2609 Oak, new construction that sat for more than 430 days without selling (start: $2.4m, last: $2.3m). It's off the MLS and the signs are down. Doing some research online, we found this market report [PDF] with the listing language from June 2006 – "Will not Last!!!"

Also, the remodel at 746 31st is inactive. We're keeping it on the the list this time because it seems these folks intended to sell – it's a two-year itcher remodel for which the sellers paid $1.7m in Jan. '05; they were seeking $2.4m. We'll scratch it next time if it's not re-listed.

Inventory Graphs through 6/30/07

Here are four graphs representing SFR inventory in all of MB, west of Sepulveda, from Spring through July 30, 2007.

There are four separate graphs, one for the whole west-of-Hwy.-1 area, and one for each of the three regions (Hill, Sand and Trees). Please note, we use different scales for the y-axis, depending on the subject region. Also note, if we included condos and townhomes, inventory would be substantially larger in the Sand Section.

(Click on any graph to enlarge.)





Why look at inventory like this?

It's possible to see a lot at a glance: Where there were bursts of new listings, for instance, or sales. We can see at once both how many homes are selling, and how many are not.

The data now, covering three months, don't show sharp trends – inventory is up a bit, but neither the rate of sales nor new listings is a big shock. In troubled markets, new listings consistently outpace sales, and inventory swells.

We're experimenting with this as a long-term measuring tool. We welcome all feedback; please email: mbwatcher@gmail.com.

Some technical notes:

1) The graphs, broken into two-week periods, are based on MBC's twice-monthly "MB Market Updates," but several adjustments have been made to the data. For instance, homes that went into escrow but fell out and returned are not represented here as having ever gone pending. (The fact that they once appeared to have been sold is irrelevant to this data.) Also, if the published "Market Update" did not include a new listing that was actually active at the time – only picking it up in a later update – the graphs nonetheless show the actual start dates. Finally, the data represents exclusively SFRs; some THs in MBC's earlier spreadsheets were eliminated completely.

2) View each colored bar separately for each period. "New" and "pending" listings in a given period are not to be added or subtracted from the blue "active" bar for a given period – neither figure is a subset of the "active" total. The "active" figure given is the total number of active SFRs for sale on the date of the report. Some listings "new" in that period actually sold in that period, too. For that reason, "new" and "pending" are separate figures that happen to be reported alongside the active total.

3) New/pending differential is relevant in comparing "actives" between periods. If five more homes were newly listed in a given period than went pending, then that period's active total should be five greater than the previous period's active total. That is not always true, however, because:

4) Cancellations are not shown. A few listings are "canceled" each week; most are bogus re-listings, but some represent a true change of heart by the sellers. (With re-listings, neither the cancellation nor the "new" listing infects the data here.) When listings drop completely off the MLS, the total number of "actives" is reduced. All of the apparent mathematical discrepancies in the charts presented here are accounted for by cancellations – which we have recorded, but not graphed.

True Days on Market for Active Listings, 6/30/07

The good news is that average DOM is down in MB (west of Sepulveda) from our last report at the end of May, from 98 DOM to 88 DOM. (Click chart to enlarge.)

This figure is still significantly higher than you’re likely to find elsewhere, because MBC uses actual start dates. DOM calculations are, therefore, not confounded by bogus re-listings.

The reduction in average DOM reflects both the entry of new inventory over the last month and the sale of several homes with high DOM.

Looking at these by section:

The Hill Section stands below the regional average at 75 DOM, down 15 DOM since the end of May. With few listings, and several new ones, the average would be much better (48 DOM) if not for 844 11th, a remodel that was 429 days old on June 30.

Active listings in the Sand Section are also below the average at 78 DOM, a big improvement from the end of May (103 DOM) thanks to the sale of three listings with 200+ DOM.

The Tree Section average is up to 98 DOM from 96 at the end of May, reflecting some stagnation. In the less-than-$2m segment, average DOM is 77, while in the $2m+ segment, it's at 108 DOM, up 3 DOM from May despite 6 active listings less than 30 days old. With 28 homes in the Trees-over-$2m category, the high average DOM here raises all other market segments by 10 DOM when we calculate the regional average.

About the calculations:

Total days on market for all active listings were added together, then divided by the number of listings – a simple calculation. Five anomalous listings were removed from the data – one home that has been on and off the market since Feb. 2006 (224 25th), and four homes listed while under construction (511 Pacific, 217 9th, 4419 Highland and 644 33rd).